News

Posted by methaz on June 25, 2010 - 4:12pm
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: deepwater horizon, gulf of mexico, hurricanes, oil spill [list all tags]

This is the first post by Chuck Watson (aka methaz), Director of Research and Development for Kinetic Analysis Corporation (KAC). KAC provides detailed impact and risk assessments to a wide variety of commercial and government clients, including most of the Caribbean governments, the UK Overseas Territories, and Bloomberg Business News. Over the last few years Chuck has provided exclusive insights in to the potential impact of storms on energy infrastructure here at The Oil Drum, and this year will be joining us as a contributor to help assess the impact storms may have on our energy infrastructure. - Gail

We now have our first serious threat to the Gulf of Mexico this year, in the form of Tropical Depression 1 (TD #1). The current official forecast is for the storm to hit the Yucatan Peninsula and, if it survives, cross the Bay of Campeche and strike the coast again near the Mexico/Texas border. Some of the more advanced computer models are showing that the system may make a more northward turn and become a strong tropical storm or hurricane after passing over Yucatan, potentially impacting the area of the Deepwater Horizon response. I would caution here that forecasting weak systems is tricky, and track/forecast models have a poor track record on storms at this stage.

That said, here is a map of some of the computer models, as of late Friday afternoon (7pm ET), including the official forecast track in bright red. We should have a better handle on where the storm is going, and if there is serious potential to impact the Gulf production areas or DH spill response, over the weekend. As discussed below, if it turns and strengthens, it could be problematic for the DH response.

If the storm crosses Yucatan directly as per the official Forecast, it should have minimal impact on PEMEX. The waves might cause problems for the DH response, but it is too early to tell. Since we don't really know at this stage if the storm will be a serious threat, below the fold I will discuss in general the impact hurricanes have on production in the Gulf, what a storm might do to the oil spill (and vice versa!), what this year might have in store, and what kinds of info we'll try to post here during incoming storms.

Note: This overview of hurricanes and GOMEX oil/gas production is based on research by Dr. Mark Johnson of the University of Central Florida and myself. This year we will be posting comments on incoming storms, forecasts, and results of our ongoing work here at The Oil Drum as conditions warrant.

Ever since offshore oil and gas production accelerated in the 1970s, hurricanes have been a factor. However, the rapid expansion of offshore production coincided with a period of lower hurricane activity resulting in part from a 20-30 year climate cycle known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). If 2004's Hurricane Ivan was a wake up call, 2005's Katrina and Rita, combined with tight markets, were Mother Nature up-ending the bed and dumping us on the cold hard floor. We are now in a period of higher activity that is likely to last for another 5-10 years.

Hurricanes disrupt Oil/Gas production in two key ways: evacuation and actual damage. Offshore assets must be evacuated well in advance of an incoming storm. Precautionary shut-downs are made to prevent spills in the event platforms, rigs, and undersea pipelines are damaged. Thus, even if a storm completely misses the offshore assets, a storm in the Gulf can cause the loss of 3-5 days of production as crews shut down, evacuate, return, and restore production. Admiral Allen noted in a press conference today they would need to start shutting down the Deepwater Horizon operation 5 days before 34kt winds arrived, and it could take two weeks to resume operations. That seems excessive to me - 3 days evacuation, and 5-7 for recovery seems more in line with historical disruptions, but given the complexity and ad hoc nature of the response equipment may well be true. If 5 days to evacuate number is accurate, this is a serious problem, since 5 day forecasts are notoriously unreliable and have a "cone of uncertainty" of over 300 nautical miles. AL93 is already less they 4 days out, according to some models.

The damage a storm will cause depends on many factors. Waves are a major factor. Older platforms had an air gap (the distance between the normal, static water surface and the base of the platform) of 35 ft to allow waves to pass under the platform. Over time that grew to 55 ft. But Ivan, Katrina, and Rita firmly demonstrated that these air gaps are too small. Chevron's Petronius platform was hit by a 90ft wave in Ivan, and was shut down for six months. Another major problem is damage to the 33,000 mile network of pipelines that connects platforms with on-shore refineries. Undersea landslides, pressure damage, and damage to the infrastructure where the pipelines come onshore can cut off platforms for months. The high winds from a storm can strip off towers, cranes, and other superstructure from offshore assets.

Assets are generally built to withstand a 100 year event. However, that often results in a serious under-design of the entire system. While a 70 foot wave might be a 100 year event at any one point, it is only a 12 year event for at least one platform in the Gulf. Another issue is the harsh offshore environment. In effect these structures are sitting in a salt bath. Even with aggressive preventive maintenance, it is doubtful that a structure designed to handle a 120mph wind can still handle those loads after sitting in the Gulf for years or decades.

Restoration times are also a complex calculation. Some wells, especially older, nearshore assets, are simply not worth restoring as they are too far along in their production cycle to warrant the expense of repairing the damage. For major events like Katrina, another issue is the globally limited resources to replace damaged assets.

This doesn't look to be a good year for several reasons. First, we are still clearly in a warm phase AMO cycle, with the Atlantic sea surface temperatures above normal. Second, it is increasingly clear that we will be entering a La Nina phase of the ENSO cycle over the next few weeks. Thus, there will be more energy (SST) and favorable winds (La Nina). Historically, when those conditions exist, there is disruption to Gulf of Mexico (GOMEX) production. Our modeling indicates that 98% of years with climatology similar to this one will lose at least one week of production, as opposed to 40% of all years. On average, 98 million barrels of production are shut in in years like this one.

There has been a lot of discussion about the impact of a hurricane on the spill, and vice versa. Jeff Masters has a good discussion on the impact of oil on a storm topic here. As he points out, the size of the storm is large compared to the size of the slick. I agree that as far as the impact of the spill on storms, I seriously doubt it will be noticeable. In theory, an oil sheen should reduce the energy exchange between water and air, and reduce energy available, and therefore weaken a storm. Also in theory, some are arguing the oil will result in slightly higher SSTs, and therefore more energy and stronger storms. I think both arguments are of the "angels on pinheads" variety due to the size factor, and that wave and wind action will disrupt the slicks long before either process could come in to play.

The impact of a storm on the oil is whole different matter. I think the best thing the Gulf Coast could get this year is a direct hit by a big, wet, Cat 1 storm. Strong enough to clean things out, not so bad as to hurt folks much worst than they already are. The currents and wave action would probably mix up and disperse the oil, rain bands and surge would flush out the wetlands without pushing oil much further inland. A worst case might be a mid or southern Gulf bypassing storm - winds, waves could push the oil on to and beyond protective devices as well as deeper in to the marshes, but not be violent enough to seriously mix up the oil and disperse it, and no rain bands to dilute or wash out the wetlands. A direct hit by a stronger storm could potentially push oil far inland, but the mixing and dilution effects should mitigate that somewhat.

Either way, given climatology, we're almost certainly going to find out what a hurricane does to an oil spill this year . 

• • April 7th, 2010: Colorado State University forecasters predict an "above-average" hurricane season1
  • Dates: June 1 - November 30,2010 2
  • Location: The Atlantic Basin 3
  • Also known as: Hurricane Season 2010
  • Hurricane Movie: Written and directed by Billy Ray, the movie "Hurricane Season" will premier early in 2010. The Universal Pictures film tells the true story of a group of high school athletes in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.4
  • Naming Hurricanes: Tropical depressions are referred to by numbers. They are given names if they become tropical storms. If a tropical storm turns into a hurricane, the hurricane has the same name as the tropical storm.5

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• The 2010 Hurricane Season in the Atlantic Oceanwill begin on June 1, 2010, and end on November 30, 2010. Atlantic hurricanes affect the eastern and Gulf coasts of the U.S. and the Caribbeannations. Those with interests in hurricane-prone areas must heed federal and state advice on preparedness, the season in general, and each specific storm in the season.
• Latest 2010 Hurricane Forecast Predictions An Above-Average Hurricane Season:
  • On April 7, 2010, Colorado State University issued its annual report on the year's hurricane forecast predictions.6 University forecasters William Gray and Phil Klotzbach each stated that El Nino conditions will likely dissipate by summer. In addition they believe that the warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures will not drop and will remain at the current temperatures. These temperatures have reportedly been much warmer than usual.7Because of this phenomenon, Gray and Klotzbach indicate that the 2010 hurricane season will be above-average. Specifically, they said that the warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures will "[lead] to favorable conditions for hurricanes to develop and intensify."8

  
  

  Eight Major Hurricanes Expected
  • Colorado State University's forecasters, Gray and Klotzbach, have also reported that eight hurricanes are expected for the 2010 season.9 Four of the season's hurricanes are expected to strengthen and become major hurricanes. This means that these four, if they do in fact become major hurricanes, would ultimately receive a rating of at least a category 3 storm.10 Category 3 storms are defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale. The Saffir-Simpson scale indicates that such a storm must have winds of at least 111mph; and that these winds be sustained for a period of time.

  
  

  15 Named Storms in Total
  • Including these predicted eight major storms for 2010, Gray and Klotzbach have reason to believe there will be a total of 15 named storms.11 Because the eight are included in this number, this would mean that seven of the storms during 2010 will be large enough to be officially named and yet not large enough to be considered a major hurricane. These seven additional storms, then, would each be rated at a level of category 2 or below if Gray and Klotzbach's predictions turn out to be correct.12
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• Hurricane Information The 2009 hurricane season was a relatively mild one for the United States, with only one hurricane and one tropical storm coming ashore. The position of El Nino near the South American coast and cool Atlantic waters inhibited storm growth. We cannot, however, count on the 2010 hurricane season being so uneventful. If El Nino draws away from the South American coast causing warmer waters in the Atlantic Ocean, conditions will be much more favorable to hurricane development.

   

  
  For individuals in the paths of potential hurricanes, the keys to minimizing deaths and property damage are preparedness and heeding the instructions local officials. If a hurricane actually threatens your area, keeping current on the latest forecasts for the storm's path and preparing to evacuate is essential. This 2010 Hurricane Season page will follow the 2010 season from preparedness, throughout the season, and in the aftermath, offering up-to-date information and resources to keep you fully informed.

• Early Predictions for 2010 Huricane Season As we move further into the year 2010, hurricane predictors are turning their attention to the 2010 hurricane season. While the utility of long-range hurricane forecasts is debatable, weather experts continue to publish them.

   

  
  At the University of Miami, Professor of Meteorology Ben Kirtman is looking into the relationship between the positioning of El Nino and the severity of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. According to Kirtman, in 2009 El Nino was located just offshore of the South Ameircan coast, which led to a mild hurricane season. In contrast, under Kirtman's theory, if El Nino moves furher off the South American coast then it will not protect the U.S. coastlines and may support the formation of more and stronger storms. 13

  
  One of the most eagerly anticipated forecasts comes from Dr. William Gray and Dr. Phillip Klotzbach ofColorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project. Issued on December 9, 2009, their initial forecast calls for a busier 2010 season than in 2009. 14 For the first time, they are predicting a range in the numbers of storms rather than a single number. They expect 11 – 16 named storms, 6 – 8 hurricanes, and 3 – 5 major hurricanes. 15 On April 7, 2010, June 2, 2010, and August 4, 2010, the CSU team will adjust this long-range forecast as the weather conditions become clearer. 16 In their early forecast for 2009, Drs. Gray and Klotzbach over-estimated actual the number of hurricanes that formed. 17

  Accuweather.com released its early hurricane season forecast on March 12, 2010. According to Chief Long-Range Meteorologist and Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi, the 2010 hurricane season will be busier than the 2009 season. Bastardi predicts that the 2010 season will bring 15 tropical storms and 5 hurricanes. He expects 2 or 3 hurricanes to make major landfall in the U.S. The Accuweather.com forecast is based on a weakening El Nino, warmer ocean temperatures, weakening trade winds, and higher humidity levels than in 2009. 18

  
  NOAA will issue its initial forecast for the 2010 season on May of 2010. 19

• 2010 Hurricane Names
  1. Hurricane Alex
  2. Hurricane Bonnie
  3. Hurricane Colin
  4. Hurricane Danielle
  5. Hurricane Earl
  6. Hurricane Fiona
  7. Hurricane Gaston
  8. Hurricane Hermine
  9. Hurricane Igo
  10. Hurricane Julia
• Earlier Warnings Issued This Year The U.S. National Hurricane Center will announce storm watches and warnings 12 hours earlier than in previous hurricane seasons. The earlier lead time will give those living in coastal areas more time to prepare and evacuate. Officials can give more advance warnings and watches because of advances in tracking storms and forecasting their projected paths. 20
• Looking Back to 2009 The 2009 hurricane season for the Atlantic Basic will close on November 30, 2009. There were two tropical depressions, six tropical storms, and three hurricanes. The hurricanes were Hurricane Bill (active Aug. 15-24), Hurricane Fred (active Sept. 7-12), and Hurricane Ida (active Nov. 4-9). 21 The only two storms to strike the United States were Tropical Storm Claudette and Hurricane Ida. 22

   

  
  The mild season can be attributed to El Nino conditions over the Pacific Ocean. 23 El Nino produces warm Pacific waters and upper level winds that discourage conditions favorable to hurricane formation. 24 Cooler waters in the Atlantic Ocean also inhibited hurricane formation. 25 The 2009 season was the mildest on record since 1997. 26

  
  The potential danger of a mild hurricane season is that people in storm-prone areas may become complacent because they expect the next season to be just as uneventful. Hurricanes depend on weather conditions both near and far from where the storms hit. Because weather conditions will continue to change constantly, the immediate past hurricane record cannot be relied upon as a prediction for the next season.27

• Prior Incidents Although hurricane forecasting is becoming more accurate, there is no computer model or formula to tell how many hurricanes will strike land during a particular season and how many of those which make landfall will be severe. For example, the 2004 season was devastating, with four severe hurricanes striking the U.S. causing loss of life and major property damage. In contrast, the 2009 season was relatively uneventful. The deadliest hurricane on record is the storm that struck and destroyed Galveston in 1901.Hurricane Katrina was the costliest hurricane, causing over $81 billion in damages.

   

  
  Loss of life is the primary concern when a hurricane strikes. The death toll from a hurricane season depends on how many strong storms made landfall, the vulnerability of the affected area, and the level of preparedness. An estimated 750 individuals died during the 2008 hurricane season. 28 Pre-positioned medical supplies allow the injured to be treated more quickly when a hurricane is over. Preparedness and early response reduce the severity of injuries and the likelihood of fatalities. 29

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Featured Content Providers:

The depth and richness of new content this year will be well appreciated!  following is just some of the exclusive content prepared by Positive Spin for this year's event.

• Jane Goodall: United Nations Messenger of Peace, and Founder of the Jane Goodall Institute.  We will showcase a celebration of the life and work of Dr. Jane Goodall on her 75th birthday, looking back at fifty years of dedication to animal welfare and primatology
• Mary Robinson: former United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights and former president of Ireland
•  Sergio Duarte: UN Undersecretary-General for Disarmament
• "We Unite":  a report on how Indian women are using micro-loans to better their lives
• "Dance for Life": story on the United Nations Population Fund's "Dance for Life" program
• Olga Speranskaya: recipient of the Goldman Environmental Prize 2008
• "Brother to the Dreamer: Behold the Dream": a documentary detailing the life and controversial death of the Rev. Dr. Alfred Daniel Williams King -- younger brother and an important strategist to the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.
• Wanze Eduards and Hugo Jabini: environmental activists and Goldman Environmental Prize recipients for organizing efforts led to a landmark ruling giving indigenous and tribal peoples control of their natural resources.  (see: Indigenous and Tribal Peoples Rights)
• report on Brazil's innovative techniques and strategies to save the rain-forest.

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