Hurricane forecasts for 2010. Have they become more accurate?

• On April 7, 2010, Colorado State University issued its annual report on the year's hurricane forecast predictions.6 University forecasters William Gray and Phil Klotzbach each stated that El Nino conditions will likely dissipate by summer. In addition they believe that the warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures will not drop and will remain at the current temperatures. These temperatures have reportedly been much warmer than usual.7Because of this phenomenon, Gray and Klotzbach indicate that the 2010 hurricane season will be above-average. Specifically, they said that the warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures will "[lead] to favorable conditions for hurricanes to develop and intensify."8

• Colorado State University's forecasters, Gray and Klotzbach, have also reported that eight hurricanes are expected for the 2010 season.9 Four of the season's hurricanes are expected to strengthen and become major hurricanes. This means that these four, if they do in fact become major hurricanes, would ultimately receive a rating of at least a category 3 storm.10 Category 3 storms are defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale. The Saffir-Simpson scale indicates that such a storm must have winds of at least 111mph; and that these winds be sustained for a period of time.

• Including these predicted eight major storms for 2010, Gray and Klotzbach have reason to believe there will be a total of 15 named storms.11 Because the eight are included in this number, this would mean that seven of the storms during 2010 will be large enough to be officially named and yet not large enough to be considered a major hurricane. These seven additional storms, then, would each be rated at a level of category 2 or below if Gray and Klotzbach's predictions turn out to be correct.12

For individuals in the paths of potential hurricanes, the keys to minimizing deaths and property damage are preparedness and heeding the instructions local officials. If a hurricane actually threatens your area, keeping current on the latest forecasts for the storm's path and preparing to evacuate is essential. This 2010 Hurricane Season page will follow the 2010 season from preparedness, throughout the season, and in the aftermath, offering up-to-date information and resources to keep you fully informed.

At the University of Miami, Professor of Meteorology Ben Kirtman is looking into the relationship between the positioning of El Nino and the severity of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. According to Kirtman, in 2009 El Nino was located just offshore of the South Ameircan coast, which led to a mild hurricane season. In contrast, under Kirtman's theory, if El Nino moves furher off the South American coast then it will not protect the U.S. coastlines and may support the formation of more and stronger storms. 13

One of the most eagerly anticipated forecasts comes from Dr. William Gray and Dr. Phillip Klotzbach ofColorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project. Issued on December 9, 2009, their initial forecast calls for a busier 2010 season than in 2009. 14 For the first time, they are predicting a range in the numbers of storms rather than a single number. They expect 11 – 16 named storms, 6 – 8 hurricanes, and 3 – 5 major hurricanes. 15 On April 7, 2010, June 2, 2010, and August 4, 2010, the CSU team will adjust this long-range forecast as the weather conditions become clearer. 16 In their early forecast for 2009, Drs. Gray and Klotzbach over-estimated actual the number of hurricanes that formed. 17

Accuweather.com released its early hurricane season forecast on March 12, 2010. According to Chief Long-Range Meteorologist and Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi, the 2010 hurricane season will be busier than the 2009 season. Bastardi predicts that the 2010 season will bring 15 tropical storms and 5 hurricanes. He expects 2 or 3 hurricanes to make major landfall in the U.S. The Accuweather.com forecast is based on a weakening El Nino, warmer ocean temperatures, weakening trade winds, and higher humidity levels than in 2009. 18

NOAA will issue its initial forecast for the 2010 season on May of 2010. 19

1. Hurricane Alex
2. Hurricane Bonnie
3. Hurricane Colin
4. Hurricane Danielle
5. Hurricane Earl
6. Hurricane Fiona
7. Hurricane Gaston
8. Hurricane Hermine
9. Hurricane Igo
10. Hurricane Julia

The mild season can be attributed to El Nino conditions over the Pacific Ocean. 23 El Nino produces warm Pacific waters and upper level winds that discourage conditions favorable to hurricane formation. 24 Cooler waters in the Atlantic Ocean also inhibited hurricane formation. 25 The 2009 season was the mildest on record since 1997. 26

The potential danger of a mild hurricane season is that people in storm-prone areas may become complacent because they expect the next season to be just as uneventful. Hurricanes depend on weather conditions both near and far from where the storms hit. Because weather conditions will continue to change constantly, the immediate past hurricane record cannot be relied upon as a prediction for the next season.27

Loss of life is the primary concern when a hurricane strikes. The death toll from a hurricane season depends on how many strong storms made landfall, the vulnerability of the affected area, and the level of preparedness. An estimated 750 individuals died during the 2008 hurricane season. 28 Pre-positioned medical supplies allow the injured to be treated more quickly when a hurricane is over. Preparedness and early response reduce the severity of injuries and the likelihood of fatalities. 29