Climate Change & the Integrity of Science

Climate Change & the 
Integrity of Science 
Lead Letter from 255 Members of the US
National Academy of Sciences, including 11 Nobel LaureatesScience Magazine, May 2010

We are deeply disturbed by the recent escalation of political assaults on scientists in general and on climate scientists in particular. All citizens should understand some basic scientific facts. There is always some uncertainty associated with scientific conclusions; science never absolutely proves anything. When someone says that society should wait until scientists are absolutely certain before taking any action, it is the same as saying society should never take action. For a problem as potentially catastrophic as climate change, taking no action poses a dangerous risk for our planet. 

Scientific conclusions derive from an understanding of basic laws supported by laboratory experiments, observations of nature, and mathematical and computer modeling. Like all human beings, scientists make mistakes, but the scientific process is designed to find and correct them. This process is inherently adversarial— scientists build reputations and gain recognition not only for supporting conventional wisdom, but even more so for demonstrating that the scientific consensus is wrong and that there is a better explanation. That's what Galileo, Pasteur, Darwin, and Einstein did. But when some conclusions have been thoroughly and deeply tested, questioned, and examined, they gain the status of "well-established theories" and are often spoken of as "facts." 

For instance, there is compelling scientific evidence that our planet is about 4.5bn years old (the theory of the origin of Earth), that our universe was born from a single event about 14bn years ago (the Big Bang theory), and that today's organisms evolved from ones living in the past (the theory of evolution). Even as these are overwhelmingly accepted by the scientific community, fame still awaits anyone who could show these theories to be wrong. Climate change now falls into this category: there is compelling, comprehensive, and consistent objective evidence that humans are changing the climate in ways that threaten our societies and the ecosystems on which we depend. 

Many recent assaults on climate science and, more disturbingly, on climate scientists by climate change deniers, are typically driven by special interests or dogma, not by an honest effort to provide an alternative theory that credibly satisfies the evidence. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other scientific assessments of climate change, which involve thousands of scientists producing massive and comprehensive reports, have, quite expectedly and normally, made some mistakes. When errors are pointed out, they are corrected.

There is nothing remotely identified in the recent events that changes the fundamental conclusions about climate change: 

(i) The planet is warming due to increased concentrations of heat-trapping gases in our atmosphere. A snowy winter in Washington does not alter this fact.

(ii) Most of the increase in the concentration of these gases over the last century is due to human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. 

(iii) Natural causes always play a role in changing Earth's climate, but are now being overwhelmed by human-induced changes. 

(iv) Warming the planet will cause many other climatic patterns to change at speeds unprecedented in modern times, including increasing rates of sea-level rise and alterations in the hydrologic cycle. Rising concentrations of carbon dioxide are making the oceans more acidic. 

(v) The combination of these complex climate changes threatens coastal communities and cities, our food and water supplies, marine and freshwater ecosystems, forests, high mountain environments, and far more. 

Much more can be, and has been, said by the world's scientific societies, national academies, and individuals, but these conclusions should be enough to indicate why scientists are concerned about what future generations will face from business- as-usual practices. We urge our policymakers and the public to move forward immediately to address the causes of climate change, including the unrestrained burning of fossil fuels. 

We also call for an end to McCarthy-like threats of criminal prosecution against our colleagues based on innuendo and guilt by association, the harassment of scientists by politicians seeking distractions to avoid taking action, and the outright lies being spread about them. Society has two choices: we can ignore the science and hide our heads in the sand and hope we are lucky, or we can act in the public interest to reduce the threat of global climate change quickly and substantively. 

The good news is that smart and effective actions are possible. But delay must not be an option. The signatories are all members of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences but are not speaking on its behalf or on behalf of their institutions: 

Adams, Robert McCormick, University of California, San Diego 
Amasino, Richard M, University of Wisconsin 
Anders, Edward, University of Chicago 
Anderson, David J, California Institute of Technology 
Anderson, Wyatt W, University of Georgia 
Anselin, Luc E, Arizona State University 
Arroyo, Mary Kalin, University of Chile 
Asfaw, Berhane, Rift Valley Research Service 
Ayala, Francisco J, University of California, Irvine 
Bax, Adriaan, National Institutes of Health 
Bebbington, Anthony J, University of Manchester 
Bell, Gordon, Microsoft Research 
Bennett, Michael V L, Albert Einstein College of Medicine 
Bennetzen, Jeffrey L, University of Georgia 
Berenbaum, May R, University of Illinois 
Berlin, Overton Brent, University of Georgia 
Bjorkman, Pamela J, California Institute of Technology 
Blackburn, Elizabeth, University of California, San Francisco 
Blamont, Jacques E, Centre National d' Etudes Spatiales 
Botchan, Michael R, University of California, Berkeley 
Boyer, John S, University of Delaware 
Boyle, Ed A, Massachusetts Institute of Technology 
Branton, Daniel, Harvard University 
Briggs, Steven P, University of California, San Diego 
Briggs, Winslow R, Carnegie Institution of Washington 
Brill, Winston J, Winston J. Brill and Associates 
Britten, Roy J, California Institute of Technology 
Broecker, Wallace S, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and Columbia University 
Brown, James H, University of New Mexico 
Brown, Patrick O, Stanford University School of Medicine 
Brunger, Axel T, Stanford University 
Cairns, Jr John, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University 
Canfield, Donald E, University of Southern Denmark 
Carpenter, Stephen R, University of Wisconsin 
Carrington, James C, Oregon State University 
Cashmore, Anthony R, University of Pennsylvania 
Castilla, Juan Carlos, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile 
Cazenave, Anny, Centre National d' Etudes Spatiales 
Chapin, III F, Stuart, University of Alaska 
Ciechanover, Aaron J, Technion-Israel Institute of Technology 
Clapham, David E, Harvard Medical School 
Clark, William C, Harvard University 
Clayton, Robert N, University of Chicago 
Coe, Michael D, Yale University 
Conwell, Esther M, University of Rochester 
Cowling, Ellis B, North Carolina State University 
Cowling, Richard M, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University 
Cox, Charles S, University of California, San Diego 
Croteau, Rodney B, Washington State University 
Crothers, Donald M, Yale University 
Crutzen, Paul J, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry 
Daily, Gretchen C, Stanford University 
Dalrymple, Brent G, Oregon State University 
Dangl, Jeffrey L, University of North Carolina 
Darst, Seth A, Rockefeller University 
Davies, David R, National Institutes of Health 
Davis, Margaret B, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis 
De Camilli, Pietro V, Yale University School of Medicine 
Dean, Caroline, John Innes Centre 
DeFries, Ruth S, Columbia University 
Deisenhofer, Johann, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center at Dallas 
Delmer, Deborah P, University of California, Davis 
DeLong, Edward F, Massachusetts Institute of Technology 
DeRosier, David J, Brandeis University 
Diener, Theodor O, University of Maryland 
Dirzo, Rodolfo, Stanford University 
Dixon, Jack E, Howard Hughes Medical Center 
Donoghue, Michael J, Yale University 
Doolittle, Russell F, University of California, San Diego 
Dunne, Thomas, University of California, Santa Barbara 
Ehrlich, Paul R, Stanford University 
Eisenstadt, Shmuel N, Hebrew University of Jerusalem 
Eisner, Thomas, Cornell University 
Emanuel, Kerry A, Massachusetts Institute of Technology 
Englander, Walter S, University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine 
Ernst, W, G, Stanford University 
Falkowski, Paul G, Rutgers, State University of New Jersey 
Feher, George, University of California, San Diego 
Ferejohn, John A, Stanford University 
Fersht, Sir Alan, University of Cambridge 
Fischer, Edmond H, University of Washington 
Fischer, Robert, University of California, Berkeley 
Flannery, Kent V, University of Michigan 
Frank, Joachim, Columbia University 
Frey, Perry A, University of Wisconsin 
Fridovich, Irwin, Duke University Medical Center 
Frieden, Carl, Washington University School of Medicine 
Futuyma, Douglas J, Stony Brook University 
Gardner, Wilford R, University of California, Berkeley 
Garrett, Christopher J R, University of Victoria 
Gilbert, Walter, Harvard University 
Gleick, Peter H, Pacific Institute, Oakland 
Goldberg, Robert B, University of California, Los Angeles 
Goodenough, Ward H, University of Pennsylvania 
Goodman, Corey S, venBio, LLC 
Goodman, Morris, Wayne State University School of Medicine 
Greengard, Paul, Rockefeller University 
Hake, Sarah, Agricultural Research Service 
Hammel, Gene, University of California, Berkeley 
Hanson, Susan, Clark University 
Harrison, Stephen C, Harvard Medical School 
Hart, Stanley R, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution 
Hartl, Daniel L, Harvard University 
Haselkorn, Robert, University of Chicago 
Hawkes, Kristen, University of Utah 
Hayes, John M, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution 
Hille, Bertil, University of Washington 
Hökfelt, Tomas, Karolinska Institutet 
House, James S, University of Michigan 
Hout, Michael, University of California, Berkeley 
Hunten, Donald M, University of Arizona 
Izquierdo, Ivan A, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio Grande do Sul 
Jagendorf, André T, Cornell University 
Janzen, Daniel H, University of Pennsylvania 
Jeanloz, Raymond, University of California, Berkeley 
Jencks, Christopher S, Harvard University 
Jury, William A, University of California, Riverside 
Kaback, H Ronald, University of California, Los Angeles 
Kailath, Thomas, Stanford University 
Kay, Paul, International Computer Science Institute 
Kay, Steve A, University of California, San Diego 
Kennedy, Donald, Stanford University 
Kerr, Allen, University of Adelaide 
Kessler, Ronald C, Harvard Medical School 
Khush, Gurdev S, University of California, Davis 
Kieffer, Susan W, University of Illinois 
Kirch, Patrick V, University of California, Berkeley 
Kirk, Kent C, University of Wisconsin 
Kivelson, Margaret G, University of California, Los Angeles 
Klinman, Judith P, University of California, Berkeley 
Klug, Sir Aaron, Medical Research Council 
Knopoff, Leon, University of California, Los Angeles 
Kornberg, Sir Hans, Boston University 
Kutzbach, John E, University of Wisconsin 
Lagarias, J Clark, University of California, Davis 
Lambeck, Kurt, Australian National University 
Landy, Arthur, Brown University 
Langmuir, Charles H, Harvard University 
Larkins, Brian A, University of Arizona 
Le Pichon, Xavier T, College de France 
Lenski, Richard E, Michigan State University 
Leopold, Estella B, University of Washington 
Levin, Simon A, Princeton University 
Levitt, Michael, Stanford University School of Medicine 
Likens, Gene E, Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies 
Lippincott-Schwartz, Jennifer, National Institutes of Health 
Lorand, Laszlo, Northwestern University 
Lovejoy, Owen C, Kent State University 
Lynch, Michael, Indiana University 
Mabogunje, Akin L, Foundation for Development and Environmental Initiatives 
Malone, Thomas F, North Carolina State University 
Manabe, Syukuro, Princeton University 
Marcus, Joyce, University of Michigan 
Massey, Douglas S, Princeton University 
McWilliams, Jim C, University of California, Los Angeles 
Medina, Ernesto, Venezuelan Institute for Scientific Research 
Melosh, Jay H, Purdue University 
Meltzer, David J, Southern Methodist University 
Michener, Charles D, University of Kansas 
Miles, Edward L, University of Washington 
Mooney, Harold A, Stanford University 
Moore, Peter B, Yale University 
Morel, Francois M M, Princeton University 
Mosley-Thompson, Ellen, Ohio State University 
Moss, Bernard, National Institutes of Health 
Munk, Walter H, University of California, San Diego 
Myers, Norman, University of Oxford 
Nair, Balakrish G, National Institute of Cholera and Enteric Diseases 
Nathans, Jeremy, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine 
Nester, Eugene W, University of Washington 
Nicoll, Roger A, University of California, San Francisco 
Novick, Richard P, New York University School of Medicine 
O'Connell, James F, University of Utah 
Olsen, Paul E, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University 
Opdyke, Neil D, University of Florida 
Oster, George F, University of California, Berkeley 
Ostrom, Elinor, Indiana University 
Pace, Norman R, University of Colorado 
Paine, Robert T, University of Washington 
Palmiter, Richard D, University of Washington School of Medicine 
Pedlosky, Joseph, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution 
Petsko, Gregory A, Brandeis University 
Pettengill, Gordon H, Massachusetts Institute of Technology 
Philander, George S, Princeton University 
Piperno, Dolores R, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute 
Pollard, Thomas D, Yale University 
Price Jr. Buford P, University of California, Berkeley 
Reichard, Peter A, Karolinska Institutet 
Reskin, Barbara F, University of Washington 
Ricklefs, Robert E, University of Missouri 
Rivest, Ronald L, Massachusetts Institute of Technology 
Roberts, John D, California Institute of Technology 
Romney, Kimball A, University of California, Irvine 
Rossmann, Michael G, Purdue University 
Russell, David W, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center of Dallas 
Rutter, William J, Synergenics, LLC 
Sabloff, Jeremy A, University of Pennsylvania Museum of Archeology and Anthropology 
Sagdeev, Roald Z, University of Maryland 
Sahlins, Marshall D, University of Chicago 
Salmond, Anne, University of Auckland 
Sanes, Joshua R, Harvard University 
Schekman, Randy, University of California, Berkeley 
Schellnhuber, John, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research 
Schindler, David W, University of Alberta 
Schmitt, Johanna, Brown University 
Schneider, Stephen H, Woods Institute for the Environment 
Schramm, Vern L, Albert Einstein College of Medicine 
Sederoff Ronald R, North Carolina State University 
Shatz, Carla J, Stanford University 
Sherman, Fred, University of Rochester Medical Center 
Sidman, Richard L, Harvard Medical School 
Sieh, Kerry, Nanyang Technological University 
Simons, Elwyn L, Duke University Lemur Center 
Singer, Burton H, Princeton University 
Singer, Maxine F, Carnegie Institution of Washington 
Skyrms, Brian, University of California, Irvine 
Sleep, Norman H, Stanford University 
Smith, Bruce D, Smithsonian Institution 
Snyder, Solomon H, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine 
Sokal, Robert R, Stony Brook University 
Spencer, Charles S, American Museum of Natural History 
Steitz, Thomas A, Yale University 
Strier, Karen B, University of Wisconsin 
Südhof, Thomas C, Stanford University School of Medicine 
Taylor, Susan S, University of California, San Diego 
Terborgh, John, Duke University 
Thomas, David Hurst, American Museum of Natural History 
Thompson, Lonnie G, Ohio State University 
Tjian, Robert T, Howard Hughes Medical Institute 
Turner, Monica G, University of Wisconsin 
Uyeda, Seiya, Tokai University 
Valentine, James W, University of California, Berkeley 
Valentine, Joan Selverstone, University of California, Los Angeles 
Van Etten, James L, University of Nebraska 
Van Holde, Kensal E, Oregon State University 
Vaughan, Martha, National Institutes of Health 
Verba Sidney, Harvard University 
Von Hippel, Peter H, University of Oregon 
Wake, David B, University of California, Berkeley 
Walker, Alan, Pennsylvania State University 
Walker John E, Medical Research Council 
Watson, Bruce E, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute 
Watson, Patty Jo, Washington University, St. Louis 
Weigel, Detlef, Max Planck Institute for Developmental Biology 
Wessler, Susan R, University of Georgia 
West-Eberhard, Mary Jane, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute 
White, Tim D, University of California, Berkeley 
Wilson, William Julius, Harvard University 
Wolfenden, Richard V, University of North Carolina 
Wood, John A, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics 
Woodwell, George M, Woods Hole Research Center 
Wright, Jr Herbert E, University of Minnesota 
Wu, Carl, National Institutes of Health 
Wunsch, Carl, Massachusetts Institute of Technology 
Zoback, Mary Lou, Risk Management Solutions, Inc